Transmission Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2: Inference and Projection

Dynamic models of infectious disease systems are often used to study the epidemiological characteristics of disease outbreaks, the ecological mechanisms and environmental conditions affecting transmission, and the suitability of various mitigation and intervention strategies.  In recent years these same models have been employed to generate probabilistic forecasts of infectious disease incidence at the population scale.  Here I present research from my own group describing application of model systems and combined model-inference frameworks to the study of SARS-CoV-2.

Learning Objectives:

1. Define undocumented v. asymptomatic infection

2. Identify epidemiological characteristics supporting pandemic spread of SARS-CoV-2

3. Explain the structure of model-inference systems depicting infectious disease transmission